Riga FC vs RFS
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-11-08 · 12:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model makes a Riga FC win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Riga FC win — 43.8% vs 41.4% implied (+2.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Riga FC 1.64 – 1.36 RFS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riga FC win | 43.8% | 41.4% | +2.5% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 25.7% | -1.0% |
| RFS win | 31.5% | 32.9% | -1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 58.3% | -0.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.2% | 36.8% | -1.6% |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | 61.8% | -1.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 40.5% | +1.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Riga FC 52.5 / RFS 52.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Riga FC vs RFS in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.