Al Jahra vs Al Qadisiya
Premier League, Kuwait · 2026-11-07 · 17:40 CET
LDLLW
LWWWLThe score model makes an Al Qadisiya win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.9% vs 60.7% implied (+10.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Jahra 0.80 – 1.93 Al Qadisiya.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Jahra win | 14.2% | 9.2% | +5.0% |
| Draw | 22.5% | 17.9% | +4.6% |
| Al Qadisiya win | 63.3% | 72.9% | -9.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 60.4% | -9.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% | 39.3% | -10.2% |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 46.6% | +1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 41.9% | -9.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Jahra 19.1 / Al Qadisiya 27.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Jahra vs Al Qadisiya in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.