Al Arabi vs Al Naser
Premier League, Kuwait · 2026-11-07 · 15:25 CET
LDDWW
LLWWDThe score model makes an Al Arabi win the most likely outcome at 69%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Al Arabi win — 68.9% vs 59.7% implied (+9.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Arabi 2.35 – 0.91 Al Naser.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Arabi win | 68.9% | 59.7% | +9.2% |
| Draw | 18.7% | 22.7% | -4.0% |
| Al Naser win | 12.4% | 17.6% | -5.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 58.1% | +5.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.2% | 37.7% | +3.5% |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 55.3% | -0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 41.1% | -1.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Arabi 26.1 / Al Naser 24 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Arabi vs Al Naser in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.