Al Shabab vs Al Tadamon
Premier League, Kuwait · 2026-11-06 · 17:40 CET
LWLLD
LLLLWThe score model makes an Al Shabab win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 60.6% vs 52.0% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.67 – 1.46 Al Tadamon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shabab win | 42.0% | 33.9% | +8.1% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 27.5% | -2.6% |
| Al Tadamon win | 33.1% | 38.6% | -5.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | 52.0% | +8.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.3% | 32.0% | +6.3% |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | 56.9% | +6.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 36.6% | +0.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Shabab 18.4 / Al Tadamon 22.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Shabab vs Al Tadamon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.