Spezia vs Vado
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-11-15 · 14:30 CET
WWDWW
WDWDLThe score model makes a Spezia win the most likely outcome at 74%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.8% vs 63.9% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Spezia 2.25 – 0.62 Vado.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 73.8% | 70.6% | +3.1% |
| Draw | 18.4% | 19.0% | -0.5% |
| Vado win | 7.8% | 10.4% | -2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 56.2% | -1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.2% | 36.1% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 41.9% | 45.0% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.8% | 38.4% | -2.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Spezia 12 / Vado 12 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Spezia vs Vado in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.