Vis Pesaro vs Pianese
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-11-14 · 14:30 CET
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DDDDWThe score model makes a Pianese win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.6% vs 73.5% implied (+4.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vis Pesaro 1.10 – 1.31 Pianese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vis Pesaro win | 29.9% | 33.8% | -3.9% |
| Draw | 30.0% | 29.0% | +1.0% |
| Pianese win | 40.1% | 37.1% | +3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 46.3% | -2.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 26.5% | -4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 51.9% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 32.2% | -1.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Vis Pesaro 49.8 / Pianese 42.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Vis Pesaro vs Pianese in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.