Reggiana vs Livorno
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-11-14 · 14:30 CET
WLLWL
DDLWDThe score model makes a Reggiana win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Livorno win — 28.8% vs 24.0% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Reggiana 1.47 – 1.17 Livorno.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reggiana win | 42.9% | 49.2% | -6.3% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 26.8% | +1.5% |
| Livorno win | 28.8% | 24.0% | +4.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 50.0% | -0.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | 29.8% | -2.4% |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 52.8% | +1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 34.2% | -1.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Reggiana 14.9 / Livorno 31.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Reggiana vs Livorno in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.