Gubbio vs Grosseto
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-11-14 · 17:30 CET
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WDWDLThe score model makes a Grosseto win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Grosseto win — 51.7% vs 41.4% implied (+10.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gubbio 1.04 – 1.70 Grosseto.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gubbio win | 22.0% | 30.7% | -8.7% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 27.9% | -1.6% |
| Grosseto win | 51.7% | 41.4% | +10.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 51.1% | +0.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 30.9% | -1.3% |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 55.9% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.8% | 35.7% | -0.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Gubbio 49.8 / Grosseto 12 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gubbio vs Grosseto in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.