Latina vs Campobasso
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-11-13 · 20:30 CET
WWDDL
LLWWDThe score model makes a Latina win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.9% vs 71.1% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Latina 1.39 – 1.10 Campobasso.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latina win | 42.2% | 40.8% | +1.4% |
| Draw | 29.3% | 29.4% | -0.1% |
| Campobasso win | 28.5% | 29.8% | -1.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 48.1% | -2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 28.9% | -4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 53.8% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 33.2% | -3.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Latina 12 / Campobasso 42.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Latina vs Campobasso in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.