Pineto vs Vis Pesaro
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-11-09 · 20:30 CET
WDWWL
LLLLDThe score model makes a Pineto win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 69.9% vs 67.6% implied (+2.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pineto 1.70 – 0.90 Vis Pesaro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pineto win | 55.1% | 53.8% | +1.2% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 25.9% | +0.4% |
| Vis Pesaro win | 18.6% | 20.2% | -1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 47.2% | +1.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.6% | 27.2% | -0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 48.5% | +1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 32.4% | -2.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Pineto 48.5 / Vis Pesaro 49.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pineto vs Vis Pesaro in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.