Torres vs Latina
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-11-08 · 12:30 CET
DWLWD
DWWDDThe score model makes a Torres win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.4% vs 74.9% implied (+3.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torres 1.23 – 1.14 Latina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torres win | 37.1% | 40.0% | -2.9% |
| Draw | 30.6% | 29.2% | +1.3% |
| Latina win | 32.4% | 30.8% | +1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | 44.7% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 25.1% | -3.5% |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 50.8% | -1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 30.6% | -2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Torres 48.9 / Latina 11.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Torres vs Latina in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.