Sambenedettese vs Guidonia
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-11-08 · 17:30 CET
WDDWL
WDWLDThe score model makes a Sambenedettese win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 79.2% vs 73.7% implied (+5.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sambenedettese 1.24 – 1.09 Guidonia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sambenedettese win | 38.3% | 34.3% | +4.0% |
| Draw | 30.8% | 29.1% | +1.6% |
| Guidonia win | 30.9% | 36.5% | -5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 45.6% | -4.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 26.3% | -5.5% |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 51.8% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 31.8% | -3.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sambenedettese 31 / Guidonia 31.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sambenedettese vs Guidonia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.