Pianese vs Perugia
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-11-08 · 17:30 CET
WDDDD
WLWLDThe score model makes a Pianese win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Pianese win — 38.5% vs 29.8% implied (+8.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pianese 1.20 – 1.03 Perugia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pianese win | 38.5% | 29.8% | +8.7% |
| Draw | 31.6% | 28.9% | +2.7% |
| Perugia win | 29.9% | 41.3% | -11.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.4% | 42.7% | -4.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.6% | 23.4% | -4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | 48.9% | -2.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.9% | 29.6% | -4.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Pianese 42.1 / Perugia 47.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pianese vs Perugia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.