Grosseto vs Pescara
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-11-08 · 12:30 CET
LWDWD
WDWWDThe score model makes a Grosseto win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Grosseto win — 50.4% vs 31.9% implied (+18.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grosseto 1.89 – 1.28 Pescara.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grosseto win | 50.4% | 31.9% | +18.5% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.6% | -2.0% |
| Pescara win | 25.0% | 41.5% | -16.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | 56.2% | +5.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.1% | 36.2% | +2.9% |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | 59.8% | +2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.7% | 38.8% | +2.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Grosseto 11.1 / Pescara 27 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Grosseto vs Pescara in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.