Campobasso vs Livorno
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-11-08 · 14:30 CET
DLLWW
LDDLWThe score model makes a Campobasso win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Campobasso win — 47.0% vs 39.5% implied (+7.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Campobasso 1.63 – 1.16 Livorno.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Campobasso win | 47.0% | 39.5% | +7.5% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 28.0% | -1.0% |
| Livorno win | 25.9% | 32.4% | -6.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 51.6% | +1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 32.1% | -1.7% |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 56.9% | -0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 35.2% | -1.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Campobasso 42.2 / Livorno 31 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Campobasso vs Livorno in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.