Vado vs Ravenna
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-11-07 · 17:30 CET
WWDWD
LWLWWThe score model makes a Ravenna win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.7% vs 69.1% implied (+7.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vado 1.02 – 1.43 Ravenna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vado win | 25.5% | 20.8% | +4.7% |
| Draw | 29.2% | 25.4% | +3.8% |
| Ravenna win | 45.3% | 53.8% | -8.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 50.8% | -6.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 30.9% | -7.6% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 51.6% | -1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 35.1% | -7.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Vado 11.1 / Ravenna 31 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Vado vs Ravenna in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.