Forli vs Gubbio
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-11-07 · 17:30 CET
LDLDL
LLLLDThe score model makes a Forli win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forli 1.52 – 0.98 Gubbio.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forli win | 48.7% | 48.0% | +0.7% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 28.1% | +0.2% |
| Gubbio win | 23.0% | 23.9% | -0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 44.1% | +1.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 25.1% | -0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | 48.9% | +1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 30.6% | -0.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Forli 31.7 / Gubbio 49.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Forli vs Gubbio in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.