Pianese vs Ravenna
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-10-04 · 14:30 CET
DLDLW
WWWWLThe score model made a Ravenna win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pianese 0.70 – 1.20 Ravenna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pianese win | 20.6% | 20.3% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.3% | 25.3% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Ravenna win | 47.0% | 54.4% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.7% | 51.1% | -21.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.6% | 30.0% | -17.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 36.3% | 52.2% | -15.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.2% | 34.9% | -14.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pianese 39.6 / Ravenna 27.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.