Campobasso vs Torres
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-10-04 · 14:30 CET
WDDWD
WWDDDThe score model made a Campobasso win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Campobasso 1.34 – 1.02 Torres.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campobasso win | 42.9% | 39.0% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.5% | 27.5% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Torres win | 27.6% | 33.5% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 52.1% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 31.4% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 56.6% | -8.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 36.1% | -10.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Campobasso 39.6 / Torres 47.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.