Gubbio vs Perugia
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-10-03 · 14:30 CET
WDLLL
LLLWWThe score model made a Gubbio win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gubbio 1.08 – 0.90 Perugia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gubbio win | 38.1% | 31.7% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.3% | 29.4% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Perugia win | 28.6% | 38.9% | -10.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.6% | 45.6% | -14.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.8% | 25.3% | -11.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 40.2% | 51.5% | -11.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.7% | 31.5% | -6.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gubbio 47.8 / Perugia 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.