Vis Pesaro vs Guidonia
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-09-27 · 17:30 CET
LLLLW
DDDLWThe score model made a draw the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 28%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vis Pesaro 0.95 – 0.89 Guidonia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vis Pesaro win | 34.3% | 26.2% | +8.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 34.9% | 28.9% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Guidonia win | 30.8% | 44.9% | -14.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28.1% | 46.0% | -17.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.6% | 26.0% | -14.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.4% | 51.1% | -13.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 53.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 18.2% | 31.8% | -13.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vis Pesaro 47.4 / Guidonia 27.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.