Sambenedettese vs Campobasso
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-09-26 · 20:30 CET
WDDWL
DLLWWThe score model made a Campobasso win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sambenedettese 1.00 – 1.16 Campobasso.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sambenedettese win | 30.1% | 33.3% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.7% | 29.9% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Campobasso win | 38.2% | 36.9% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.5% | 43.9% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.2% | 24.2% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.4% | 50.5% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.8% | 30.9% | -9.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sambenedettese 27.2 / Campobasso 39.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sambenedettese vs Campobasso in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.