Pergolettese vs Pro Vercelli
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-11-15 · 17:30 CET
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LLWDWThe score model makes a Pergolettese win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.1% vs 72.2% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pergolettese 1.41 – 1.08 Pro Vercelli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pergolettese win | 43.6% | 40.1% | +3.5% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 29.4% | -0.9% |
| Pro Vercelli win | 27.9% | 30.5% | -2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 47.5% | -2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 27.8% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 52.4% | -1.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 32.5% | -2.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Pergolettese 50.3 / Pro Vercelli 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pergolettese vs Pro Vercelli in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.