Cittadella vs Folgore Caratese
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-11-15 · 17:30 CET
WWLWD
LLDLDThe score model makes a Cittadella win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 46.2% vs 43.1% implied (+3.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cittadella 1.93 – 0.76 Folgore Caratese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cittadella win | 64.3% | 64.8% | -0.6% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 22.6% | -0.0% |
| Folgore Caratese win | 13.2% | 12.6% | +0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 48.1% | +2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 27.8% | +0.5% |
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | 43.1% | +3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 33.1% | +0.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Cittadella 32.8 / Folgore Caratese 12 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cittadella vs Folgore Caratese in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.