Lumezzane vs Trento
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-11-14 · 17:30 CET
DLLDW
WWWDWThe score model makes a Trento win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.9% vs 70.0% implied (+6.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lumezzane 1.12 – 1.32 Trento.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lumezzane win | 30.7% | 24.8% | +5.9% |
| Draw | 29.1% | 27.1% | +1.9% |
| Trento win | 40.3% | 48.1% | -7.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.3% | 50.0% | -5.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.1% | 30.0% | -6.9% |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 52.8% | -2.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 34.2% | -5.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Lumezzane 48.5 / Trento 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lumezzane vs Trento in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.