AlbinoLeffe vs Brescia
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-11-14 · 14:30 CET
LDDWL
WLWWWThe score model makes a Brescia win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: AlbinoLeffe win — 22.8% vs 20.2% implied (+2.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AlbinoLeffe 1.00 – 1.61 Brescia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| AlbinoLeffe win | 22.8% | 20.2% | +2.5% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 26.7% | -0.1% |
| Brescia win | 50.6% | 53.0% | -2.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | 47.7% | +0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.7% | 28.0% | -1.3% |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 49.5% | +2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 33.2% | +0.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: AlbinoLeffe 50.4 / Brescia 32.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open AlbinoLeffe vs Brescia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.