Ospitaletto vs Dolomiti Bellunesi
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-11-13 · 20:30 CET
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LLLLLThe score model makes an Ospitaletto win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 52.9% vs 48.9% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ospitaletto 1.92 – 0.88 Dolomiti Bellunesi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ospitaletto win | 61.1% | 60.5% | +0.5% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 24.3% | -1.2% |
| Dolomiti Bellunesi win | 15.8% | 15.1% | +0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 48.9% | +4.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 29.3% | +1.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 46.8% | +3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 33.7% | -0.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ospitaletto 32.8 / Dolomiti Bellunesi 32.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ospitaletto vs Dolomiti Bellunesi in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.