Treviso vs Novara
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-11-08 · 17:30 CET
DLWWL
WLDLWThe score model makes a Treviso win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 64.7% vs 56.9% implied (+7.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Treviso 1.22 – 0.89 Novara.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treviso win | 42.9% | 49.3% | -6.4% |
| Draw | 31.1% | 28.0% | +3.1% |
| Novara win | 26.0% | 22.7% | +3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.3% | 43.1% | -7.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.4% | 24.0% | -7.7% |
| Both teams to score | 42.5% | 46.8% | -4.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.7% | 30.4% | -6.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Treviso 11.2 / Novara 50.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Treviso vs Novara in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.