Lecco vs Juventus U23
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-11-08 · 14:30 CET
DDWDW
LDWLDThe score model makes a Lecco win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Lecco win — 57.8% vs 49.5% implied (+8.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lecco 1.82 – 0.93 Juventus U23.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecco win | 57.8% | 49.5% | +8.3% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 27.4% | -3.2% |
| Juventus U23 win | 18.0% | 23.1% | -5.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 48.3% | +3.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.7% | 28.5% | +1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 51.5% | -0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 33.3% | -0.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Lecco 44.8 / Juventus U23 13.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lecco vs Juventus U23 in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.