Giana Erminio vs Cittadella
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-11-08 · 14:30 CET
DDWWL
LWWLWThe score model makes a Cittadella win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Giana Erminio win — 30.4% vs 19.4% implied (+11.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Giana Erminio 1.08 – 1.29 Cittadella.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giana Erminio win | 30.4% | 19.4% | +11.0% |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.8% | +3.7% |
| Cittadella win | 40.2% | 54.8% | -14.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | 47.5% | -5.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.5% | 27.7% | -6.2% |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 48.0% | +0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 32.9% | -5.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Giana Erminio 48.1 / Cittadella 32.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Giana Erminio vs Cittadella in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.