Folgore Caratese vs Carpi
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-11-08 · 17:30 CET
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LLWWLThe score model makes a Folgore Caratese win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 60.8% vs 49.2% implied (+11.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Folgore Caratese 1.61 – 1.53 Carpi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Folgore Caratese win | 39.2% | 37.6% | +1.7% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 28.0% | -2.9% |
| Carpi win | 35.7% | 34.4% | +1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | 49.2% | +11.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.4% | 28.5% | +9.9% |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | 54.6% | +8.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 34.2% | +4.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Folgore Caratese 11.2 / Carpi 11.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Folgore Caratese vs Carpi in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.