Desenzano vs Ospitaletto
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-11-08 · 17:30 CET
WWLLL
DWLLDThe score model makes an Ospitaletto win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Ospitaletto win — 40.2% vs 33.9% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Desenzano 1.04 – 1.25 Ospitaletto.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Desenzano win | 29.8% | 36.0% | -6.1% |
| Draw | 30.0% | 30.1% | -0.1% |
| Ospitaletto win | 40.2% | 33.9% | +6.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.4% | 41.4% | -1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.0% | 22.4% | -2.4% |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | 48.2% | -1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 29.1% | -1.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Desenzano 11.2 / Ospitaletto 32.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Desenzano vs Ospitaletto in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.