Pergolettese vs Renate
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-11-07 · 17:30 CET
DWWWL
DDLDWThe score model makes a Renate win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 79.0% vs 72.4% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pergolettese 1.17 – 1.17 Renate.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pergolettese win | 35.0% | 33.2% | +1.8% |
| Draw | 29.9% | 28.6% | +1.2% |
| Renate win | 35.2% | 38.2% | -3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 47.7% | -6.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.0% | 27.6% | -6.6% |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 53.0% | -4.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 32.9% | -5.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Pergolettese 50.1 / Renate 50.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pergolettese vs Renate in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.