Brescia vs Arzignano
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-11-06 · 20:30 CET
DWLWW
DWLWDThe score model makes a Brescia win the most likely outcome at 54%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.4% vs 71.7% implied (+4.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brescia 1.60 – 0.86 Arzignano.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 54.0% | 57.7% | -3.7% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 25.5% | +1.1% |
| Arzignano win | 19.4% | 16.8% | +2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 48.1% | -3.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 28.3% | -4.7% |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 47.4% | -0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 32.9% | -3.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Brescia 32.3 / Arzignano 50.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brescia vs Arzignano in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.