Alcione Milano vs Lumezzane
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-11-06 · 20:30 CET
DDWLW
WDLLDThe score model makes an Alcione Milano win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 60.1% vs 48.7% implied (+11.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alcione Milano 1.30 – 0.98 Lumezzane.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alcione Milano win | 43.1% | 43.7% | -0.5% |
| Draw | 29.8% | 27.6% | +2.2% |
| Lumezzane win | 27.1% | 28.8% | -1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 51.3% | -11.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.7% | 30.3% | -10.7% |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 55.6% | -9.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.2% | 35.1% | -7.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Alcione Milano 42.8 / Lumezzane 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Alcione Milano vs Lumezzane in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.