Lecco vs Brescia
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-10-04 · 12:30 CET
WWDLD
DDWDDThe score model made a Brescia win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 26%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lecco 0.70 – 1.08 Brescia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecco win | 22.8% | 22.7% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.8% | 28.0% | +5.8% | ✓ |
| Brescia win | 43.5% | 49.3% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 53.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26.3% | 42.8% | -16.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.5% | 23.4% | -12.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 33.8% | 47.0% | -13.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.1% | 29.4% | -8.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lecco 42.7 / Brescia 29.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.