Cittadella vs AlbinoLeffe
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-10-03 · 14:30 CET
WWWWL
DLWDWThe score model made a Cittadella win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cittadella 1.45 – 0.99 AlbinoLeffe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cittadella win | 47.2% | 56.8% | -9.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 24.9% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| AlbinoLeffe win | 25.0% | 18.3% | +6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 48.8% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 28.6% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 49.2% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 18.4% | 33.5% | -15.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cittadella 29.2 / AlbinoLeffe 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.