Arzignano vs Pergolettese
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-10-03 · 17:30 CET
LWWWD
WDDDDThe score model made an Arzignano win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arzignano 1.31 – 0.84 Pergolettese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arzignano win | 47.0% | 47.0% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.8% | 29.8% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Pergolettese win | 23.2% | 23.2% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.4% | 41.4% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.1% | 22.6% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.1% | 47.3% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.4% | 28.7% | -2.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arzignano 48.4 / Pergolettese 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.