Entella vs Modena
Serie B, Italy · 2026-11-08 · 15:00 CET
DWLDL
WLWWDThe score model makes a Modena win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.6% vs 73.1% implied (+4.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Entella 1.15 – 1.27 Modena.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entella win | 31.8% | 31.1% | +0.7% |
| Draw | 30.7% | 29.4% | +1.3% |
| Modena win | 37.5% | 39.5% | -2.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.4% | 46.3% | -3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 26.9% | -4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 52.7% | -2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 31.5% | -3.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Entella 31 / Modena 49.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Entella vs Modena in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.