Carrarese vs Sampdoria
Serie B, Italy · 2026-11-08 · 17:15 CET
WWLWL
LLDLWThe score model makes a Carrarese win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.6% vs 70.4% implied (+7.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Carrarese 1.36 – 1.05 Sampdoria.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese win | 42.3% | 38.1% | +4.2% |
| Draw | 30.3% | 29.4% | +1.0% |
| Sampdoria win | 27.3% | 32.5% | -5.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 49.6% | -6.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 29.6% | -7.2% |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 55.3% | -5.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 33.6% | -4.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Carrarese 41.8 / Sampdoria 47.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Carrarese vs Sampdoria in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.