Padova vs Empoli
Serie B, Italy · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
LLWWD
LDLLDThe score model makes a Padova win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 72.2% vs 67.4% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Padova 1.50 – 1.00 Empoli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padova win | 47.3% | 44.1% | +3.1% |
| Draw | 29.0% | 28.2% | +0.8% |
| Empoli win | 23.8% | 27.7% | -3.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 48.3% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 28.0% | -3.6% |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 53.2% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 32.6% | -4.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Padova 31 / Empoli 31 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Padova vs Empoli in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.