Benevento vs Avellino
Serie B, Italy · 2026-11-07 · 19:30 CET
WDWDL
WDLDWThe score model makes a Benevento win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 69.0% vs 66.1% implied (+2.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Benevento 1.70 – 0.95 Avellino.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento win | 53.6% | 51.7% | +1.9% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.0% | +0.8% |
| Avellino win | 19.6% | 22.3% | -2.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 50.0% | -0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.6% | 29.3% | -1.7% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 52.7% | -1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 33.9% | -2.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Benevento 11.4 / Avellino 31 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Benevento vs Avellino in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.