Ascoli vs Palermo
Serie B, Italy · 2026-11-06 · 20:30 CET
DDWWD
WWWDWThe score model makes an Ascoli win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.5% vs 62.5% implied (+9.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ascoli 1.46 – 1.24 Palermo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 40.9% | 34.6% | +6.3% |
| Draw | 28.6% | 27.5% | +1.1% |
| Palermo win | 30.4% | 37.8% | -7.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 58.4% | -7.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% | 37.5% | -9.0% |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 62.1% | -6.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.2% | 39.5% | -6.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ascoli 16.8 / Palermo 49.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ascoli vs Palermo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.