Torino vs Udinese
Serie A, Italy · 2026-10-12 · 20:45 CET
LWLDW
WLLLLThe score model made a Torino win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torino 1.28 – 1.21 Udinese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino win | 37.9% | 37.8% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 31.6% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Udinese win | 34.4% | 30.6% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 42.7% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 23.6% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 50.1% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.6% | 29.5% | -1.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Torino 46.8 / Udinese 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.