Como vs AS Roma
Serie A, Italy · 2026-10-11 · 12:30 CET
WWWLD
WWWDDThe score model made an AS Roma win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Como 1.22 – 1.26 AS Roma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como win | 35.2% | 37.8% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 27.1% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| AS Roma win | 37.5% | 35.1% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 58.2% | -13.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.8% | 37.5% | -13.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 62.5% | -11.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 40.1% | -11.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Como 38.9 / AS Roma 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.