Napoli vs Frosinone
Serie A, Italy · 2026-10-10 · 20:45 CET
WLLWD
LWWDWThe score model makes a Napoli win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.7% vs 57.2% implied (+15.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Napoli 1.67 – 0.97 Frosinone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli win | 53.6% | 65.4% | -11.8% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 20.0% | +4.5% |
| Frosinone win | 21.9% | 14.6% | +7.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 63.5% | -14.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 42.8% | -15.5% |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 57.5% | -6.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 43.1% | -6.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Napoli 47.4 / Frosinone 10.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.