Inter vs Parma
Serie A, Italy · 2026-10-10 · 18:00 CET
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LLDLWThe score model makes an Inter win the most likely outcome at 75%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 68.8% vs 51.2% implied (+17.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Inter 2.40 – 0.68 Parma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter win | 75.5% | 83.0% | -7.6% |
| Draw | 15.9% | 11.3% | +4.6% |
| Parma win | 8.6% | 5.7% | +3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | 69.8% | -10.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.2% | 49.9% | -12.7% |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 45.6% | -0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 48.8% | -17.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Inter 47.5 / Parma 39.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.