Genoa U20 vs Lecce U20
Primavera 1, Italy · 2026-11-07 · 11:00 CET
WWDDD
DWWLWThe score model makes a Genoa U20 win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 64.5% vs 52.6% implied (+11.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Genoa U20 1.49 – 1.28 Lecce U20.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa U20 win | 41.6% | 38.2% | +3.4% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 23.6% | +3.2% |
| Lecce U20 win | 31.7% | 38.2% | -6.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 61.8% | -9.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.2% | 39.4% | -9.2% |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 63.5% | -6.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.5% | 47.4% | -11.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Genoa U20 40.6 / Lecce U20 40.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Genoa U20 vs Lecce U20 in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.