Bologna U20 vs Monza U20
Primavera 1, Italy · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
WWLWL
LDLDLThe score model makes a Bologna U20 win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 63.2% vs 45.0% implied (+18.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bologna U20 1.83 – 1.13 Monza U20.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna U20 win | 53.0% | 58.0% | -5.0% |
| Draw | 24.3% | 20.5% | +3.8% |
| Monza U20 win | 22.8% | 21.5% | +1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 72.8% | -16.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% | 52.5% | -18.1% |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 69.2% | -11.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 55.0% | -18.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Bologna U20 41.3 / Monza U20 40.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bologna U20 vs Monza U20 in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.