Sassuolo U20 vs Cesena U20
Primavera 1, Italy · 2026-11-06 · 18:00 CET
LWDDL
DWLDLThe score model makes a Sassuolo U20 win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 61.5% vs 47.7% implied (+13.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sassuolo U20 1.59 – 1.45 Cesena U20.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo U20 win | 40.3% | 32.4% | +7.9% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 22.5% | +2.8% |
| Cesena U20 win | 34.4% | 45.1% | -10.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 67.6% | -9.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.2% | 45.9% | -9.7% |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | 67.8% | -6.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 52.3% | -13.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sassuolo U20 40.7 / Cesena U20 41.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sassuolo U20 vs Cesena U20 in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.